References

Albrecht, S. V., Christianos, F., & Schäfer, L. (2024). Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning: Foundations and Modern Approaches.
Anderies, J. M., Folke, C., Walker, B., & Ostrom, E. (2013). Aligning Key Concepts for Global Change Policy: Robustness, Resilience, and Sustainability. Ecology and Society, 18(2). https://www.jstor.org/stable/26269292
Anderies, J. M., & Janssen, M. A. (2016). Sustaining the commons. Independent. https://dlc.dlib.indiana.edu/dlc/handle/10535/8839
Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J., & Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science, 377(6611), eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950
Barfuss, W. (2020). Reinforcement Learning Dynamics in the Infinite Memory Limit. Proceedings of the 19th International Conference on Autonomous Agents and MultiAgent Systems, 1768–1770.
Barfuss, W. (2022). Dynamical systems as a level of cognitive analysis of multi-agent learning. Neural Computing and Applications, 34(3), 1653–1671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-021-06117-0
Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., & Kurths, J. (2019). Deterministic limit of temporal difference reinforcement learning for stochastic games. Physical Review E, 99(4), 043305. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.99.043305
Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Lade, S. J., & Kurths, J. (2018). When optimization for governing human-environment tipping elements is neither sustainable nor safe. Nature Communications, 9(1), 2354. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-04738-z
Barfuss, W., Donges, J. F., Vasconcelos, V. V., Kurths, J., & Levin, S. A. (2020). Caring for the future can turn tragedy into comedy for long-term collective action under risk of collapse. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(23), 12915–12922. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916545117
Barfuss, W., Donges, J., & Bethge, M. (2024). Ecologically-mediated collective action in commons with tipping elements. OSF. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/7pcnm
Barfuss, W., Flack, J. C., Gokhale, C. S., Hammond, L., Hilbe, C., Hughes, E., Leibo, J. Z., Lenaerts, T., Levin, S. A., Madhushani Sehwag, U., McAvoy, A., Meylahn, J. M., & Santos, F. P. (2024). Collective Cooperative Intelligence. Forthcomming in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
Barrett, S. (1994). Self-Enforcing International Environmental Agreements. Oxford Economic Papers, 46(Supplement_1), 878–894. https://doi.org/10.1093/oep/46.Supplement_1.878
Barrett, S. (2005). Environment and Statecraft: The Strategy of Environmental Treaty-Making. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0199286094.001.0001
Barrett, S., & Dannenberg, A. (2012). Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(43), 17372–17376. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1208417109
Biggs, R., Preiser, R., de Vos, A., Schlüter, M., Maciejewski, K., & Clements, H. (2021). The Routledge Handbook of Research Methods for Social-Ecological Systems (1st ed.). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003021339
Boers, N., & Rypdal, M. (2021). Critical slowing down suggests that the western Greenland Ice Sheet is close to a tipping point. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 118(21), e2024192118. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2024192118
Botvinick, M., Wang, J. X., Dabney, W., Miller, K. J., & Kurth-Nelson, Z. (2020). Deep Reinforcement Learning and Its Neuroscientific Implications. Neuron, 107(4), 603–616. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.neuron.2020.06.014
Brander, J. A., & Taylor, M. S. (1998). The Simple Economics of Easter Island: A Ricardo-Malthus Model of Renewable Resource Use. The American Economic Review, 88(1), 119–138. https://www.jstor.org/stable/116821
Brockmann, D. (2021). Im Wald vor lauter Bäumen: Unsere komplexe Welt besser verstehen. Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag.
Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Anderies, J. M., & Abel, N. (2001). From Metaphor to Measurement: Resilience of What to What? Ecosystems, 4(8), 765–781. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-001-0045-9
Constantino, S. M., Schlüter, M., Weber, E. U., & Wijermans, N. (2021). Cognition and behavior in context: A framework and theories to explain natural resource use decisions in social-ecological systems. Sustainability Science, 16(5), 1651–1671. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-021-00989-w
Daniel, C. J., Frid, L., Sleeter, B. M., & Fortin, M.-J. (2016). State-and-transition simulation models: A framework for forecasting landscape change. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 7(11), 1413–1423. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12597
Elsawah, S., Filatova, T., Jakeman, A. J., Kettner, A. J., Zellner, M. L., Athanasiadis, I. N., Hamilton, S. H., Axtell, R. L., Brown, D. G., Gilligan, J. M., Janssen, M. A., Robinson, D. T., Rozenberg, J., Ullah, I. I. T., & Lade, S. J. (2020). Eight grand challenges in socio-environmental systems modeling. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 2, 16226–16226. https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.2020a16226
Epstein, J. M. (1999). Agent-based computational models and generative social science. Complexity, 4(5), 41–60. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-0526(199905/06)4:5<41::AID-CPLX9>3.0.CO;2-F
Farahbakhsh, I., Bauch, C. T., & Anand, M. (2022). Modelling coupled human–environment complexity for the future of the biosphere: Strengths, gaps and promising directions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 377(1857), 20210382. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2021.0382
Folke, C., Carpenter, S., Walker, B., Scheffer, M., Chapin, T., & Rockström, J. (2010). Resilience Thinking: Integrating Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability. Ecology and Society, 15(4). https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-03610-150420
Garbe, J., Albrecht, T., Levermann, A., Donges, J. F., & Winkelmann, R. (2020). The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Nature, 585(7826), 538–544. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2727-5
Giupponi, C., Ausseil, A.-G., Balbi, S., Cian, F., Fekete, A., Gain, A. K., Essenfelder, A. H., Martínez-López, J., Mojtahed, V., Norf, C., Relvas, H., & Villa, F. (2022). Integrated modelling of social-ecological systems for climate change adaptation. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 3, 18161–18161. https://doi.org/10.18174/sesmo.18161
Goll, D., Heitzig, J., & Barfuss, W. (2024). Deterministic Model of Incremental Multi-Agent Boltzmann Q-Learning: Transient Cooperation, Metastability, and Oscillations (arXiv:2501.00160). arXiv. https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2501.00160
Hoffman, M., & Yoeli, E. (2022). Hidden Games: The Surprising Power of Game Theory to Explain Irrational Human Behaviour. Hachette UK.
Izquierdo, L. R., Izquierdo, S. S., & Sandholm, W. H. (2024). Agent-Based Evolutionary Game Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13938500
Lenton, T. M., Armstrong McKay, D. I., Loriani, S., Abrams, J. F., Lade, S. J., Donges, J. F., Milkoreit, M., Powell, T., Smith, S. R., Zimm, C., Buxton, J. E., Bailey, E., Laybourn, L., Ghadiali, A., & Dyke, J. G. (Eds.). (2023). The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. https://global-tipping-points.org
Levin, S., & Xepapadeas, A. (2021). On the Coevolution of Economic and Ecological Systems. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 13(1), 355–377. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-103020-083100
Macy, M. W., & Flache, A. (2002). Learning dynamics in social dilemmas. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 99(suppl_3), 7229–7236. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.092080099
Marescot, L., Chapron, G., Chadès, I., Fackler, P. L., Duchamp, C., Marboutin, E., & Gimenez, O. (2013). Complex decisions made simple: A primer on stochastic dynamic programming. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 4(9), 872–884. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12082
Meadows, D. H. (2009). Thinking in systems: A primer. Earthscan.
Mnih, V., Kavukcuoglu, K., Silver, D., Rusu, A. A., Veness, J., Bellemare, M. G., Graves, A., Riedmiller, M., Fidjeland, A. K., Ostrovski, G., Petersen, S., Beattie, C., Sadik, A., Antonoglou, I., King, H., Kumaran, D., Wierstra, D., Legg, S., & Hassabis, D. (2015). Human-level control through deep reinforcement learning. Nature, 518(7540), 529–533. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature14236
Motesharrei, S., Rivas, J., & Kalnay, E. (2014). Human and nature dynamics (HANDY): Modeling inequality and use of resources in the collapse or sustainability of societies. Ecological Economics, 101, 90–102. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2014.02.014
Müller, B., Hoffmann, F., Heckelei, T., Müller, C., Hertel, T. W., Polhill, J. G., van Wijk, M., Achterbosch, T., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Kreuer, D., Ewert, F., Ge, J., Millington, J. D. A., Seppelt, R., Verburg, P. H., & Webber, H. (2020). Modelling food security: Bridging the gap between the micro and the macro scale. Global Environmental Change, 63, 102085. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2020.102085
Müller-Hansen, F., Cardoso, M. F., Dalla-Nora, E. L., Donges, J. F., Heitzig, J., Kurths, J., & Thonicke, K. (2017). A matrix clustering method to explore patterns of land-cover transitions in satellite-derived maps of the Brazilian Amazon. Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, 24(1), 113–123. https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-24-113-2017
Nowak, M. A. (2006). Five Rules for the Evolution of Cooperation. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1133755
Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the commons: The evolution of institutions for collective action. Cambridge university press.
Ostrom, E., Dietz, T., Dolšak, N., Stern, P. C., Stonich, S., & Weber, E. U. (Eds.). (2002). The drama of the commons. National Academies Press. http://www.nap.edu/catalog/10287
Page, S. E. (2018). The model thinker: What you need to know to make data work for you. Basic Books.
Polasky, S., Carpenter, S. R., Folke, C., & Keeler, B. (2011). Decision-making under great uncertainty: Environmental management in an era of global change. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 26(8), 398–404. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2011.04.007
Raworth, K. (2017). Doughnut economics: Seven ways to think like a 21st-century economist. Chelsea Green Publishing.
Reyers, B., Moore, M.-L., Haider, L. J., & Schlüter, M. (2022). The contributions of resilience to reshaping sustainable development. Nature Sustainability, 1–8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-022-00889-6
Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2017). A roadmap for rapid decarbonization. Science. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aah3443
Sayama, H. (2023). Introduction to the Modeling and Analysis of Complex Systems. https://math.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/Scientific_Computing_Simulations_and_Modeling/Book%3A_Introduction_to_the_Modeling_and_Analysis_of_Complex_Systems_(Sayama)
Scheffer, M., Carpenter, S., Foley, J. A., Folke, C., & Walker, B. (2001). Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature, 413(6856), 591–596. https://doi.org/10.1038/35098000
Schill, C., Anderies, J. M., Lindahl, T., Folke, C., Polasky, S., Cárdenas, J. C., Crépin, A.-S., Janssen, M. A., Norberg, J., & Schlüter, M. (2019). A more dynamic understanding of human behaviour for the Anthropocene. Nature Sustainability, 2(12), 1075–1082.
Schlüter, M., Baeza, A., Dressler, G., Frank, K., Groeneveld, J., Jager, W., Janssen, M. A., McAllister, R. R. J., Müller, B., Orach, K., Schwarz, N., & Wijermans, N. (2017). A framework for mapping and comparing behavioural theories in models of social-ecological systems. Ecological Economics, 131, 21–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2016.08.008
Schultz, W., Stauffer, W. R., & Lak, A. (2017). The phasic dopamine signal maturing: From reward via behavioural activation to formal economic utility. Current Opinion in Neurobiology, 43, 139–148. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.conb.2017.03.013
Smaldino, P. E. (2017). Models Are Stupid, and We Need More of Them. In R. R. Vallacher, S. J. Read, & A. Nowak (Eds.), Computational Social Psychology (1st ed., pp. 311–331). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315173726-14
Steffen, W., Broadgate, W., Deutsch, L., Gaffney, O., & Ludwig, C. (2015). The trajectory of the Anthropocene: The Great Acceleration. The Anthropocene Review, 2(1), 81–98. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053019614564785
Steffen, W., Rockström, J., Richardson, K., Lenton, T. M., Folke, C., Liverman, D., Summerhayes, C. P., Barnosky, A. D., Cornell, S. E., Crucifix, M., Donges, J. F., Fetzer, I., Lade, S. J., Scheffer, M., Winkelmann, R., & Schellnhuber, H. J. (2018). Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 115(33), 8252–8259. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115
Sterman, J. D., & Sweeney, L. B. (2007). Understanding public complacency about climate change: Adults’ mental models of climate change violate conservation of matter. Climatic Change, 80(3), 213–238. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9107-5
Sutton, R. S., & Barto, A. G. (2018). Reinforcement learning: An introduction (Second edition). The MIT Press.
Williams, B. K. (2009). Markov decision processes in natural resources management: Observability and uncertainty. Ecological Modelling, 220(6), 830–840. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.12.023